Alahram, Issue No.1143, 11 April, 2013
In order to meet the challenges facing the country, a national plan of action must be designed that can move the nation forward, writes Mohsen Zahran.
The events, confrontations, hopes, clashes, deaths, casualties, and disappointments that have taken place over the 25 months since the 25 January Revolution have been truly perplexing and disappointing.
This progression of highlights started with phase one and the fall of former president Hosni Mubarak, together with the assumption of power by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the adoption of the referendum on amendments to the 1971 constitution, and the trial of Mubarak and prominent figures from his corrupt government and the former ruling National Democratic Party.
Phase two of this progression was packed with demonstrations, strikes, and sit-ins by workers and unions, coupled with waves of violence and protests coming in a prevailing atmosphere of instability and insecurity. At the same time, free elections were held for a new parliament, which was then dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood in apparent collusion with the SCAF.
Phase three was ushered in by escalating and almost weekly demonstrations and marches against the SCAF, accused of betraying the revolution and of leniency towards former Mubarak supporters. This phase was also marked by denunciations of the prevailing violence, inaction, inflation, unemployment and low pay, all of which ended with bloody confrontations between demonstrators and units from the Armed Forces and police.
Phase four was marked by the holding of free presidential elections and the selection of Mohamed Morsi, head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, as the first democratically elected civilian president of the country after 60 years of military rule. Once in office, Morsi evicted the SCAF from power. Phase five then featured disturbing terrorist acts in Sinai, the Supreme Constitutional Court’s ruling to dissolve the parliament, the invasion of the sanctity of the judiciary, and the disappointing performance of the Brotherhood government after eight months of weak and distressing inaction, together with the appointment of Brotherhood loyalists to key government posts.
The worsening economic situation, characterised by huge national debt and alarming budget deficits, coupled with continuing insecurity triggering weekly confrontations with the Central Security Police in front of the presidential palace and in major Egyptian cities, led to calls for the resignation of the cabinet, a new constitution and new presidential elections. The opposition demanded that urgent measures be taken to save the national economy and for the passage of unfulfilled socio-economic reforms.
As a result of these five phases, two years after the triumph of the Revolution the goals of bread, freedom and social justice remain unfulfilled. Conditions in Egypt have become truly alarming, and the country faces difficult challenges as a result of the virtual breakdown of government operations, the economic crisis, and the rising polarisation and confrontation between the Islamist movement, championed by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis, on the one hand, and the civil/liberal parties headed by the National Salvation Front on the other.
The situation has been further exacerbated by alarming shortages of petrol, with long lines of cars waiting for hours at petrol stations, shortages of food, escalating prices, endemic shortages of goods, the raising of taxes, and the rampant violation of building and planning laws, leading to the speedy construction of illegal high-rise towers coupled with mushrooming urban expansion onto precious agricultural land.
All this has resulted in a widening gap between the rich and the poor, the “haves” and the “have-nots,” leading to a dangerous economic and social divide and the consequent social animosity, violence, and aggressive behaviour that has led to crimes against property and bloody confrontations among the various factions. While this potentially explosive situation has been escalating, the Arab Gulf states have been unresponsive to requests for assistance, and the IMF has been dragging its feet in approving a $5 billion loan. As a result, the situation has become ever more alarming and threatening.
Could this lawlessness, chaos, and disorder be intentional and thus fall within the ambit of the grand plan for the New Middle East and the “creative chaos” strategy that was proposed a few years ago? Whatever the answer to this question may be, Egypt will weather the present crisis. It has experienced many equally difficult challenges in its recent and more distant history, and it has survived them, emerging more robust regardless of the magnitude and strength of its adversaries.
Yet, in order to confront today’s challenges, there must be a solid will and firm determination to rise above the present divisions and to institute fundamental reforms through a national plan of action over the short, medium and long-term periods. This plan must lead to a political, economic, social and cultural renaissance that will be comprehensive and inclusive of all segments and parties of society, regardless of origin, religion, gender, colour, occupation or orientation. This plan must be well-synchronised, professionally orchestrated and well-balanced, and it must capitalise on material and human resources at home and abroad.
Regarding the present political situation, the objective should be to institute a political dialogue that will include all the different groups in the country. These must shoulder their responsibilities and be entrusted with constructive roles in all government branches in order to overcome the present state of polarisation. The legislative and executive and legal frameworks should be overhauled in order that they can better face the continuing corruption, apathy, nepotism, instability, and violence that plague the country.
This economic and social development plan should be part of a comprehensive plan for national development that will implement urban and rural development in new regions of Egypt following a physical development plan that will connect north and south and east and west and cover the entire nation from the Sinai and Suez Corridor to the Red Sea with the construction of the proposed bridge on the Aqaba Gulf to Saudi Arabia in order to boost development. It should link, in its northern corridor, the Qattarah Depression and Western Desert westwards to the southern border.
The plan should also envision the integration of development corridors with Sudan and the African continent, in order to open new development regions for the 100 million population that is expected in Egypt in 2020 and to serve the needs of 150 million people by 2050, including the creation of new capital for a new Egypt. The construction of roads, bridges, tunnels and public projects could involve 40 percent manpower and could help boost the country’s economic and social development. It could entail the adoption of a new Marshall Plan, or echo the plan adopted by the Roosevelt administration to create jobs and restart national development during the Great Depression in 1930s America.
Meaningful lessons need to be applied in order to bring about the new Egyptian renaissance. Meanwhile, government spending must be trimmed and fiscal policies reformed, with the emphasis placed on foreign investment, the maximisation of exports and the minimisation of imports. The 40 percent of young people who are unemployed today should be capitalised upon to carry out this plan as a valuable human resource, and the armed forces and the country’s other human and material resources should be mobilised in the service of implementing projects.
The plan should draw upon the assistance of the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union, and the Gulf states as partners in development in order to help initiate new hydroelectric projects to generate energy and develop new water resources. These are particularly important givenEgypt’s dwindling share (55.5 billion m3) of River Nile water under the soon to be adopted Entebbe Agreement with the other River Nile Basin countries.
The emphasis of industrial and agricultural development must be placed on meeting rising demands for food and shelter. The housing supply, in particular, must be quadrupled in order to fulfill the annual need of 900,000 new dwelling units (10 units per 1,000 of the population), as UN standards recommend. These new units should be built in the new settlements development regions in order to safeguard the country’s borders.
The proposed national development plan also needs to be integrated with socio-economic and cultural development. This means insisting on the legal protection of human rights, together with the adoption of legal frameworks to safeguard the rights of all citizens, including the empowerment of women, as prescribed in the United Nations Charter and other international agreements and demonstrated in the national and spiritual commitments that have been made during the development of Egypt throughout the ages.
Educational reform is the cornerstone of any sound national development plan, as the examples of Malaysia, Indonesia and China have proven. With 40 percent illiteracy in the country, and sub-standard educational provision afflicting many public schools and universities, high-quality education at all levels must be a national objective and commitment. At present, private-sector schools and universities in Egypt are business-oriented and depend on government educators in order to maximise their profits, whereas other private-sector universities, among them Harvard and MIT in the United States, are at the top of the list of world universities.
Emphasis must be placed on quality control and quality assurance at all levels, whether educational, economic, social, cultural, industrial or agricultural. In industry, low-quality products should not be tolerated. Elsewhere, tourism should be focused upon as a major economic and cultural resource for Egypt. The kind of soft power that the tourist industry can bring must be capitalised upon in order to boost development, reduce unemployment, increase foreign exchange and develop the nation’s role worldwide.
The future is unfolding, the resources are boundless, the horizons are unlimited, and the dreams are enormous. Egypt must assume its deserved position and its prominent role regionally and globally. Egyptians must ignite their wills, realise their potentials, and properly shoulder their responsibilities, in order to move forward and fulfill their long-awaited dreams of stability, security, progress and prosperity.
Reference
Zahran, M. (2013).Meeting the challenges ahead. Alahram weekly, Issue No.1143, 11 April 2013.
Zahran, M. (2014).Meeting the challenges ahead. Views and vision (p.174-177). https://archive.org/details/prof.dr.zahranpapersenglish/page/n3/mode/2up
