Mohsen ZahranPublished in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 – 01 – 2014
The year 2013 will remain indelibly marked in the memory of most Egyptians for its whirling events, difficult challenges, terrible confrontations, elating triumphs, bitter conflicts, horrible tragedies, massive demonstrations, and bloody clashes, coupled with continuing instability, violence, lawlessness, and insecurity.
The Egyptian people were inspired on 30 June, the highlight of 2013, by Lao-tse’s wisdom: “In dwelling, be close to the land; in meditation, go deep in the heart; in dealing with others, be gentle and kind; in speech, be true; in the ruling, be just; in business, be competent; in action, watch the timing; no fight, no blame.” They rose in an unprecedented wave of national defiance constituting a multitude of millions, regardless of age, gender, faction, or belief, demanding the unseating of the first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, nominated by the Muslim Brotherhood during the 2012 presidential elections. Indeed, the timely intervention of the military in response to the multi-million popular revolution was fundamental, in order to avert bloody national strife and dire consequences threatening national survival.
The 30 June Revolution was campaigned for, during the spring of 2013, by the Rebel (Tamarod) movement, which collected signatures from over 25 million Egyptians. It called for a national, mass demonstration on the prescribed date of 30 June. It mobilized more than 30 million Egyptians in most provinces and cities nationwide, calling for the immediate termination of almost one year of Muslim Brotherhood rule, in which it proved inept and unfit to govern. The Brotherhood was oblivious in fulfilling their promises to implement the 25 January Revolution’s noble objectives of “Bread, freedom, dignity and social justice,” which had claimed admiration and unanimous support worldwide. The Brotherhood, its leadership, and their candidate for president, Mohamed Morsi, proved once and again that their words were empty, their declarations void of truth, and their actions only self-serving, their motives untrustworthy. Promises made before elections to be fulfilled during the first 100 days in office were forgotten or baseless. This became their modus operandi, as evidenced in their illegal and unconstitutional acts, practices and performance throughout their 365 days in office.
Both the 25 January 2011 and 30 June 2013 revolutions were unprecedented demonstrations of people’s power, irrespective of colour, religion, gender, origin or income level a true proof of national cohesion, will, determination and unity. Aristotle’s idealism of people themselves practicing democracy was first put into practice 2500 years on by the people of Egypt, dissimilar to any order or system recognized in democratic nations in this third millennium. The grassroots of democracy was recalled and applied in unprecedented fashion in a historic, exemplary model.
The summer of 2013 will be long remain remembered in the history of modern Egypt for its unforgettable ecstasies and agonies. The masses during the 30 June Revolution demanded the military intervene and support their will. Commander-in-Chief General Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi tried to reason with Morsi to respond to the peoples’ demands, but the latter continued to live and behave in a state of denial and refusal. The people continued to demonstrate through 3 July, when General Al-Sisi, after consultations with SCAF (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) and various political and religious figures, declared 3 July the removal of Morsi, the suspension of the 2012 Constitution, and the adoption of a “roadmap” plan for the future. This included the appointment of Chief Justice Adli Mansour, of the Supreme Constitutional Court, as interim president, the swearing-in of a transitional cabinet, the creation of a new Constitutional Committee to author a new draft constitution, correcting the biased and unacceptable 2012 Muslim Brotherhood constitution, to be followed by the holding of new parliamentary and presidential elections in nine months.
The train of events and challenges that led to the showdown needs to be critically examined and evaluated. During nearly 12 months of Muslim Brotherhood rule of the nation, the parliament’s Shura Council (the upper house) was dominated by their deputies, echoing similar domination of the People’s Assembly (the lower house), which was dissolved earlier by the Supreme Constitutional Court for being unconstitutionally elected. Likewise, they had wasted no time in controlling the executive branch as well as the judiciary. They were not ashamed to support nepotism in public appointments, allow for rampant corruption, and fill key governmental posts with their members and sympathizers. They ignored Lao-tse’s counsel: “Claim wealth and titles and disaster will follow. Retire when the work is done, this is the way of heaven.”
The Muslim Brotherhood executed unhesitatingly their determination and familiar tactics of exclusiveness, and rushed towards the implementation of their hidden agenda of invading the state and filling its posts at all levels, whether in the cabinet, ministries, local government, syndicates, or labour unions. The once prevalent national unity was alarmingly divided, evidently threatening civil strife and civil war.
The swelling stream of events, crises, confrontations, clashes, and strikes had resulted in costly, painful repercussions, especially evidenced in the hundreds of deaths and thousands of casualties, a heavy toll that has inflamed Egypt during 12 months of pain, despair, animosities, volatility, insecurity, instability, and flagrant chaos. The bloody clashes and scores of deaths and wounded near the Presidential Palace caused not by the police or army, but by the Muslim Brotherhood militia ordered in by Morsi, together with the causalities in the Port Said confrontations, as well as almost weekly bloodshed in various Egyptian cities, were too horrifying, inflammatory and intolerable. Brotherhood thugs and armed gangs roamed the streets, looting, damaging property, and killing or hurting innocent civilians and anti-Morsi protesters
As a consequence, there were repeated calls for civil disobedience and protest marches against the government and the president, demanding change and reform. Their demands fell on deaf ears. This further exasperated the nation, accelerating the continued deterioration of the national condition on all fronts. The economic crisis worsened further (the economic rate of growth fell below two percent), with a sharp decline in foreign reserves ($13.5 billion in 2013, as compared to $32 billion at the end of 2010), large budget deficits (30 percent), spiraling inflation (25 percent), rising unemployment (13.4 percent with 50 percent of the youth of the age 15-35 unemployed), petrol, gas and bread shortages, frequent electrical power blackouts, lack of productivity, loss of exports, rising imports by Brotherhood tycoons, coupled with a serious decline in tourism, the major foreign exchange earner and the backbone of the Egyptian economy. As a result, the value of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar fell by 25 percent.
Furthermore, terrorist attacks in Sinai threatened the porous border with Israel and undermined the peace treaty. In addition, the affiliation of Hamas in the Gaza Strip with the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Cairo allowed intensive use of tunnels for smuggling of Egyptian subsidized goods, petrol, and electricity to support the Hamas government. Adding insult to injury, the rumored agreement to allocate 1600 square kilometers of Sinai to Hamas to resettle Palestinians angered Egyptians, realizing that this intolerable national treason was engineered by Morsi and Hamas involving a multi-party, international deal, infested with bribery, corruption, and betrayal.
The repeated disregard of human rights and the continuing imprisonment, condemned by human rights groups, of key leaders of the January youth revolution coupled with the numerous incidents of deadly sectarian clashes in Cairo and in Upper Egypt further inflamed and sparked protests and demonstrations, not only in Egypt but in various capitals in Europe and the United States. The attack on churches, especially the Coptic Cathedral in Abbasiya in Cairo, resulted in deaths and causalities, more bloodshed, and agonies. The systematic Muslim Brotherhood attack on notable media personalities, who rebuked steadily the Brotherhood government, persisted in their efforts in condemning the opposition, including prominent leaders of various parties, who had been outspoken in their critical denunciation of Morsi’s rule and Brotherhood practices. It was evident to all that Egypt was facing a serious national crisis that was multi-faceted, deep, and divisive, threatening the very unity, foundation and existence of the nation. It was of paramount importance to act quickly and thus to institute the proper order of priorities to overcome the persistent and dangerous instability, debilitating animosity, and socio-economic divides. It was mandatory for the survival of the nation to intervene immediately in order to eradicate the infecting virus of national decline and despair, to eliminate the weekly human toll, to overcome frustrations, hatred, confrontations, disparities, disappointments, rampant corruption, and infiltrating apathy. It was a matter of national urgency to embark decisively on meeting and managing pressing national challenges here and abroad. Lao-tse’s wisdom was a golden rule to follow when the military intervened supporting the popular demand to end the Muslim Brotherhood social contract, to unseat Morsi, who betrayed the peoples’ trust, acted as a proxy for the Brotherhood’s goals and objectives, regardless of national priorities and interests, and betrayed the very constitution according to which he was elected and vowed publically to uphold. His actions were treasonable.
Concurrently with, and subsequent to, the 30 June Revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood wasted no time amassing their own support in demonstrations in various cities, which were violent and ended in heavy causalities. They decided on sit-ins and squatting in Rabaa Al-Adaweya Square in Nasr City, in Cairo, and in Nahda Square, opposite Cairo University, in Giza, blocking traffic, together with initiating daily, violent bloody confrontations with surrounding communities. Furthermore, they focussed on daily contacts with world media, capitalising on IT resources to enlist external power support, as well as on the crucial solidarity with the International Federation of the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to maximise internal and external pressure for the return of Morsi and Brotherhood rule in Egypt. This was accompanied by daily terror attacks in Sinai, as well as the destruction of nearly 80 churches around Egypt, in order to incite civil strife and secular civil war. The Church acted wisely, not to respond in kind. The US, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, and Qatar’s response was not supportive of the Egyptian popular 30 June Revolution — if not indeed outright aggressive against it, as in the case of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Turkey. It was incredible and puzzling that the declared US strategy and commitment to fighting terrorism at home and abroad, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan, had become paradoxically tolerant of Muslim Brotherhood violence and terrorist acts in Egyptian cities, in Sinai and Upper Egypt. They turned a blind eye and ear when a prominent Brotherhood leader declared at the Rabaa camp in early July that terrorist attacks in Sinai would cease once Morsi returns to power. Ironically, tacit US accommodations with the Muslim Brotherhood since 2005 were unraveled by the 30 June Revolution.
From the beginning, the Western media described the revolution as a military coup d’état against democratic legitimacy, echoing the Muslim Brotherhood orchestrated media campaign. But Arab countries unequivocally supported the revolution. It was both admirable and gratifying that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait declared their explicit support, pledging nearly $12 billion in grants, as well as in no-interest loans to augment Egypt‘s dwindling foreign exchange resources. The daily instability and confrontations at Rabaa and Nahda Square had to be dealt with. General Al-Sisi asked for massive national demonstrations in order to reassert popular support, and to give him a clear mandate to deal with this challenge of violence, insecurity, and terrorism nationwide. The people came out in scores of millions to reaffirm their trust, as well as a delegation of authority on 26 July 2013 in General Al-Sisi. After Ramadan, the Muslim Brotherhood crowds and sympathisers at the camps and sit-ins in Rabaa and Nahda were served repeated warnings to evacuate the squares. They refused adamantly, which prompted the police, supported by the army, to forcibly vacate the squares and restore civil order. This mop-up operation, however, was performed at the regrettable cost of hundreds of lives, including causalities on both sides. Accusations of massive bloodshed and deaths in the thousands were spread by the Brotherhood’s active propaganda machine, as well as in the world media, in order to tarnish the image of the Egyptian revolution.
Nevertheless, the country proceeded forward, cautiously and steadily implementing its roadmap for the future:
– The interim president, Adli Mansour, assumed office and discharged his duties with wise and steady statesmanship.
– The interim cabinet, composed mostly of technocrats, was sworn in headed by a renowned economist, Hazem Al-Beblawi.
– The police force was given a new mandate to deal with insecurity and violence, after the people in Tahrir renewed their trust in the police, and the police declared their commitment to behave professionally and abandon their old role as a faithful guard of the political establishment.
– The new constitutional committee was established in September. It prepared a new constitution to replace the suspended Muslim Brotherhood constitution. A national referendum is expected to ratify the new draft in January.
– Parliamentary elections are planned in Spring 2014, and presidential elections will take place three months hence.
– Most countries that suspended touristic group visits to Egypt have now lifted their bans, and tourism is beginning to return to normal operations.
– A Russian delegation, headed by the ministers of foreign affairs and defense, visited Egypt in November in a new rapprochement initiative, promising stronger multifaceted relations and more active cooperation. This is seen as a balanced new foreign policy strategy in response to the lukewarm US reaction towards the June revolution. US relations with Egypt have been mercurial since the summer but warmed slowly in October during the visit by Secretary of State John Kerry. However, the Egyptian foreign minister hastened to declare that the historic meeting and future cooperation with Russia would not be at the expense of Egyptian relations with other countries or powers.
– Meanwhile, China, the second-largest world economic giant after the US, has also voiced its support and solidarity for the Egyptian people.
– Following high-level visits by officials on both sides, Saudi, UAE, and Kuwaiti investors announced their plans to invest heavily in various projects in Egypt, in order to revive its economy, thus boosting economic opportunities in the short and long terms.
THE ROADMAP TO RECOVERY AND REVIVAL: The interim cabinet is expected to hand over its duties to a new cabinet after the completion of parliamentary and presidential elections by mid-2014. However, authorities should immediately establish and launch for the future an unprecedented roadmap of socio-economic, political and cultural development and lay the foundations for its plans, policies, programs, and projects. They must adopt an ambitious framework of integrated, comprehensive development with a timetable in short, medium and long-term phases of implementation.
– A Comprehensive National Integrated Development Plan must capitalise on the forgotten, deserted regions of Egypt, especially the Sinai, Upper Egypt, Qattara Depression and the eastern desert oases corridor. The goal is phased, integrated, urban-rural industrial and agricultural progress for entire Egypt. A strategic 2050 National Development Plan with achievable targets to be implemented in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is highly recommended.
– A National Defence Plan for safeguarding Egypt‘s borders, east, west, north and south, by focusing on maximum military preparedness, coupled with the development of productive defensive conglomerations that bolster Egypt‘s defence strategy, achieve perennial development and ensure the continuing prosperity of regional zones, which are invariably threatened by both friends and foes. Vacant regions, in Sinai, the southern or western deserts, whet the appetites of invaders, colonisers, speculators and troublemakers.
– A National Road Transportation Plan to cover comprehensively the total development needs of the nation is compulsory, starting from the north corridor to the east and west corridors and south corridor with parallel corridor grids east-west and north-south, with the Nile Valley as the principal spine. Roads and transportation networks are the backbone of urbanisation and development. A new capital for a new Egypt, a national undertaking, which I personally supported and initiated seven years ago, has become a must, to be planned and implemented gradually. There is no use for piecemeal urban redevelopment projects in the Greater Cairo, 20 million plus metropolitan area, whether in the form of ring roads, tunnels, bridges or underground Metro lines, for they will not relieve over-crowdedness, reform, or uplift the deteriorated and congested capital. Cairo is burdened and overloaded with the escalating pressures of surrounding new towns that are dependent upon the old city, leading to further congestion, dilapidation and deterioration. The example of Brazil, a rising economic world power, in building its new capital, Brasilia, in the hinterland away from the urban corridor of Rio/San Paolo on the Atlantic Ocean, should be a guiding example.
– A National Population Redistribution Plan needs to be integral with these proposed national plans and should accommodate housing, employment, needed facilities and services to serve the nation’s projected 150 million people by 2050, given its current 2.6 per cent annual rate of population growth. Egypt has been historically dependent on agriculture and the problem of hunger will become a global phenomenon that will require nations to harvest deserts and ocean floors. Food self-sufficiency must be a national strategic objective. This must be a national undertaking, for land and people are Egypt‘s precious capital that needs to be truly focused upon.
– A National Energy and Water Plan that supports and encourages desalinisation plants on the Mediterranean and Red Sea 2500-kilometre long coasts has become indispensable in order to meet future energy and water shortages, in addition to the production of needed electricity from renewable sources, using the Masdar example of the UAE as a proven guide. Egypt‘s annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres of Nile River water is insufficient; it falls short of the yearly consumption of nearly 75 billion cubic metres. This alarming situation requires an urgent national commitment to conclude an equitable accord with the 11 countries of the Nile Basin that fulfils the necessary provisions to meet rising needs in water resources. A new multi-party agreement must be negotiated and concluded as soon as possible, in order to ensure the equitable share of Nile Water in the face of Egypt‘s vital needs. An urgent agreement with Ethiopia is mandatory, after their large dam construction project is progressing, and in view of the regrettable reaction of Morsi in May towards our African partner.
– A National Plan for Education and Healthcare Reform is obligatory and should be given top priority. Recent Malaysian and Chinese achievements have recognised and capitalised on this necessity, which has boosted their economies and propelled their respective leaps forward. The recent successful educational reform experiments in Finland, Poland, China and Japan need to be examined and henceforth adopted. There is no alternative. This plan must be a national priority and needs to be comprehensively implemented at all levels.
– An ambitious National Commission on Informal Communities must be launched immediately, together with meeting the mushrooming challenges of informal housing in most Egyptian cities, defiance of law and order, and undermining the meanings and essence of urbanity, civility and basic humanity. The alarming crisis of slums is explosive, for vast squats have become a breeding ground for drugs, crime, violence, disease, illiteracy, immorality, hatred, neglect, rebellion, insecurity and disorder, infesting nearly 30 per cent of major cities and housing 35 per cent of the total population.
The objectives of the January 2011 and June 2013 revolutions that have sparked Egyptians‘ hopes for a better future must be fulfilled. The expectations of 40 million people living under the UN poverty line, enduring inhumane conditions, intolerable hunger, disease and illiteracy must be met. Promises made must be fulfilled.
The road to Tahrir is very well travelled and too well known to neglect or ignore. It is too costly, bloody and painful to all. The security and stability of Egypt is crucial to several regions, far and near. The challenges are enormous, the problems abound, the obstacles seem insurmountable, but the martyrs of demonstrations, the spirit of patriotism, the will to change and the resolve to thrust forward are abundant, as the horizons are glorious, boundless, open and ready.
The writer is a professor of planning at the University of Alexandria.
For more papers of Professor Dr. Mohsen Zahran, please refer to the original website
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